The falling birthrate and an exodus of families with young children out of the city means there will be almost a thousand empty places in Bristol’s primary school Reception classes for a second year running this September, renewing concerns of budget cuts, job losses and schools closing across the city.
New detailed data has been released by Bristol City Council for this September’s intake of four-year-olds starting school for the first time in just a few weeks’ time. And it reveals that, despite the population of Bristol exceeding half a million for the first time ever last month, the decline in school-age children is continuing.
The data reveals how many each children of the 98 state primary schools in Bristol can accommodate in their Reception year classes, how many parents put that school down as either the first, second or third preference back in the spring, and how many children are scheduled to start in each of those schools in the first week of September.
Of the 98 schools listed, 83 of them didn’t have the numbers of first-preference applications to fill their Reception year places this September. Only 15 were ‘oversubscribed’, with more parents putting that school down as their first preference than the school has places for.
Even after taking in second and sometimes third preference choices, 65 of the 98 primary schools in Bristol will start September’s school year with fewer pupils in Reception year than they could take.
In total, the number of four-year-olds starting school in September in Bristol is 4,534, while the total capacity of all the Reception classes across the 98 primary schools in the city is 5,480 – which means there will be 946 empty spaces across the city in September.
It’s the second year running schools have been massively under-subscribed. Last September, Bristol Live reported that there were 970 surplus places across the city, which led to fears some schools might have to close or merge.
City council education chiefs said they would be working with schools to manage the reducing numbers, and the reduction in that surplus from 970 to 946, despite a reduction in the total number of Reception age children, is because some schools have already cut the number of Reception classes they have from three to two, or from two to one.
Primary schools plan what their ‘PAN’ – pupil admission number – will be long in advance, and most schools in Bristol have a PAN of 30 or 60 – either one Reception class or two.
Only two primary schools are four-form entry with a PAN of 120 children, which has declined from three last year. This year, Air Balloon Hill Primary and Ashton Gate Primary are both are expecting all four forms to be full or thereabouts come September.
The planning for this September across Bristol saw only 13 schools offer 90 spaces in three classes of Reception year children, a drop from 16 the year before. But smaller primary schools will see significantly fewer children than they could accommodate too, and the schools with only one Reception class are the most vulnerable to closure altogether.
Badock’s Wood Primary School in Southmead could take 45 four-year-olds in September, but will have only 13, while Willow Park primary, just off St Michael’s Hill near the city centre could have 30 pupils starting school but will only have seven.
Cathedral Primary School was one of only 15 schools to be over-subscribed with first preference applications. It had 69 parents put it down as first choice for its 60 Reception spaces, and will begin in September with a full 60 children in its two Reception classes.
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